Central Espanol FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 2.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 76¢ · $338 held · ended Nov 14

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$337.74

Combined PnL

$33.7

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 75.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$198.29

Total Shares253

Combined PnL+$20.09

Over5 traders

Total Value$139.45

Total Shares408

Combined PnL+$13.62

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 72.2¢	$149.85	$169.15	+$19.3	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 26.5¢	$98.68	$113.73	+$15.05	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 32.1¢	$12.75	$11.33	-$1.43	55% 5362-4302 (9664)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 60¢	$10.83	$10.37	-$0.46	37% 1018-1700 (2718)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Underavg 53.7¢	$8.29	$9.88	+$1.59	50% 153-152 (305)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$9.55	$9.55	+$0	36% 945-1666 (2611)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 53¢	$9.23	$8.88	-$0.35	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.4	$2.45	+$0.05	37% 966-1630 (2596)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.4	-$0.05	42% 990-1359 (2349)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$149.85

Value

$169.15

PnL

+$19.3

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$98.68

Value

$113.73

PnL

+$15.05

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.75

Value

$11.33

PnL

-$1.43

Record

55%

5362-4302 (9664)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$10.83

Value

$10.37

PnL

-$0.46

Record

37%

1018-1700 (2718)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Under

Invested

$8.29

Value

$9.88

PnL

+$1.59

Record

50%

153-152 (305)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.55

Value

$9.55

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$9.23

Value

$8.88

PnL

-$0.35

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

37%

966-1630 (2596)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.05

Record

42%

990-1359 (2349)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.