Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 5 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Central Espanol FC win on 2026-11-14?
5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 37¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
14
Yes 36%
$1.0K
-$78.8
34.7¢ → 37¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $297.74 | $276.13 | -$21.61 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $244.78 | $226.78 | -$18 | 53% 2083-1825 (3908) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 53.8¢ | $213.87 | $192.95 | -$20.91 | 37% 1018-1700 (2718) |
SM smithagent<$100 | Noavg 59.3¢ | $88.89 | $78.75 | -$10.14 | 45% 651-808 (1459) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $57.01 | $60.13 | +$3.12 | 37% 957-1658 (2615) |
SL SlickRick123<$100 | Noavg 56.2¢ | $48.86 | $45.68 | -$3.18 | 34% 365-702 (1067) |
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 57.2¢ | $40.92 | $37.58 | -$3.34 | 47% 964-1087 (2051) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 55.6¢ | $33.84 | $31.93 | -$1.91 | 48% 1095-1172 (2267) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 55.6¢ | $29 | $27.15 | -$1.86 | 45% 797-979 (1776) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $12.9 | $13.5 | +$0.6 | 53% 1340-1169 (2509) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $10 | $8.3 | -$1.7 | 40% 426-647 (1073) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 35.5¢ | $6.7 | $6.88 | +$0.18 | 48% 2066-2225 (4291) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100 | Noavg 60.5¢ | $6.05 | $6 | -$0.05 | 44% 361-465 (826) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $0.54 | $0.55 | +$0.02 | 42% 990-1359 (2349) |
Invested
$297.74
Value
$276.13
PnL
-$21.61
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Invested
$244.78
Value
$226.78
PnL
-$18
Record
53%
2083-1825 (3908)
Invested
$213.87
Value
$192.95
PnL
-$20.91
Record
37%
1018-1700 (2718)
Invested
$88.89
Value
$78.75
PnL
-$10.14
Record
45%
651-808 (1459)
Invested
$57.01
Value
$60.13
PnL
+$3.12
Record
37%
957-1658 (2615)
Invested
$48.86
Value
$45.68
PnL
-$3.18
Record
34%
365-702 (1067)
dips.<$100Invested
$40.92
Value
$37.58
PnL
-$3.34
Record
47%
964-1087 (2051)
poshposh<$100Invested
$33.84
Value
$31.93
PnL
-$1.91
Record
48%
1095-1172 (2267)
Invested
$29
Value
$27.15
PnL
-$1.86
Record
45%
797-979 (1776)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$12.9
Value
$13.5
PnL
+$0.6
Record
53%
1340-1169 (2509)
Invested
$10
Value
$8.3
PnL
-$1.7
Record
40%
426-647 (1073)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$6.88
PnL
+$0.18
Record
48%
2066-2225 (4291)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.05
Record
44%
361-465 (826)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.55
PnL
+$0.02
Record
42%
990-1359 (2349)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.