Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will CA Penarol Montevideo win on 2026-11-15?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 47¢ · $529 held · ended Nov 15

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$529.09

Combined PnL

-$5.51

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 47¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$133.66

Total Shares290

Combined PnL-$5.51

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.9

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 56.6¢	$397.72	$392.53	-$5.19	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.6¢	$266.92	$247.41	-$19.51
└ No leg	Noavg 42.8¢	$130.8	$145.12	+$14.32
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$35.63	$33.65	-$1.99	52% 2600-2381 (4981)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$28.07	$27.08	-$0.99	48% 1402-1508 (2910)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$17.26	$17.89	+$0.63	54% 2045-1764 (3809)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 41.9¢	$17.47	$17.3	-$0.17	56% 703-544 (1247)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 48.8¢	$12.2	$11.38	-$0.82	46% 506-602 (1108)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$11.22	$10.01	-$1.21	45% 1041-1259 (2300)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 45.2¢	$9.09	$8.94	-$0.15	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 53.2¢	$6.12	$5.23	-$0.88	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.9	+$0	62% 295-180 (475)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$2.1	$2.18	+$0.08	36% 525-952 (1477)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$397.72

Value

$392.53

PnL

-$5.19

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

Both legs:

Yes$266.9256.6¢-$19.51

No$130.842.8¢+$14.32

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$35.63

Value

$33.65

PnL

-$1.99

Record

52%

2600-2381 (4981)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$28.07

Value

$27.08

PnL

-$0.99

Record

48%

1402-1508 (2910)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$17.26

Value

$17.89

PnL

+$0.63

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$17.47

Value

$17.3

PnL

-$0.17

Record

56%

703-544 (1247)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$12.2

Value

$11.38

PnL

-$0.82

Record

46%

506-602 (1108)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$11.22

Value

$10.01

PnL

-$1.21

Record

45%

1041-1259 (2300)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$9.09

Value

$8.94

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$6.12

Value

$5.23

PnL

-$0.88

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

295-180 (475)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.08

Record

36%

525-952 (1477)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 47%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.