Will Defensor Sporting win on 2026-11-15?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 88¢ · $488 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$488.4
$0.98
84¢ → 88¢
+5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $165.9 | $172.91 | +$7.01 | 48% 4844-5167 (10011) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 81.8¢ | $119.35 | $124.02 | +$4.67 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $46.55 | $48.89 | +$2.34 | |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 86¢ | $102.39 | $102.99 | +$0.6 | 46% 1257-1451 (2708) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $90.87 | $90.87 | +$0 | 38% 1462-2368 (3830) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $68.12 | $68.12 | +$0 | 38% 1454-2390 (3844) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $27.45 | $26.61 | -$0.84 | 52% 2600-2381 (4981) |
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $70.31 | $11.62 | +$1.31 | 48% 1360-1476 (2836) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 84.6¢ | $9.62 | $9.61 | -$0.01 | 38% 1433-2333 (3766) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $4.2 | $4.18 | -$0.03 | 38% 1445-2329 (3774) |
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.5¢ | $1.55 | $1.5 | -$0.05 | 17% 74-356 (430) |
Invested
$165.9
Value
$172.91
PnL
+$7.01
Record
48%
4844-5167 (10011)
Both legs:
Invested
$102.39
Value
$102.99
PnL
+$0.6
Record
46%
1257-1451 (2708)
Invested
$90.87
Value
$90.87
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1462-2368 (3830)
Invested
$68.12
Value
$68.12
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1454-2390 (3844)
Invested
$27.45
Value
$26.61
PnL
-$0.84
Record
52%
2600-2381 (4981)
dips.<$100Invested
$70.31
Value
$11.62
PnL
+$1.31
Record
48%
1360-1476 (2836)
Invested
$9.62
Value
$9.61
PnL
-$0.01
Record
38%
1433-2333 (3766)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$4.18
PnL
-$0.03
Record
38%
1445-2329 (3774)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$0.05
Record
17%
74-356 (430)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.