Danubio FC vs. Liverpool Montevideo: O/U 2.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 71¢ · $519 held · ended Nov 15

Over29¢Under71¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$518.9

Combined PnL

$5.14

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 71¢

+31% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over29%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$148.55

Total Shares262

Combined PnL+$6.83

Over5 traders

Total Value$34.81

Total Shares79

Combined PnL-$1.69

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 59.3¢	$358.97	$335.54	-$23.44	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.3¢	$187.52	$240.38	+$52.87
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.2¢	$171.46	$95.15	-$76.3
VeryLucky888	Underavg 56¢	$112	$112	+$0	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 41¢	$13.12	$17.92	+$4.8	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 55¢	$13.6	$15.83	+$2.23	57% 702-540 (1242)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$14.28	$13.96	-$0.32	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$10.26	$9.61	-$0.65	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$8.32	$8.33	+$0	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 60¢	$3	$2.8	-$0.2	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$3	$2.2	-$0.8	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$0.64	$0.72	+$0.08	35% 669-1223 (1892)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$358.97

Value

$335.54

PnL

-$23.44

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Both legs:

Under$187.5259.3¢+$52.87

Over$171.4643.2¢-$76.3

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$112

Value

$112

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$13.12

Value

$17.92

PnL

+$4.8

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$13.6

Value

$15.83

PnL

+$2.23

Record

57%

702-540 (1242)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.28

Value

$13.96

PnL

-$0.32

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.26

Value

$9.61

PnL

-$0.65

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.32

Value

$8.33

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.8

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0.08

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.