Will Liverpool Montevideo win on 2026-11-15?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$159.97

Smart Money Entry

70.7¢ → 95.5¢

+35% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,884

Combined PnL+$162.32

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.74

Total Shares34

Combined PnL-$2.35

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+73 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 76.6¢	$974.63	$985.86	+$11.23	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 31.4¢	$1.8K	$810.5	$-1.0K	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
└ No leg	Noavg 77.6¢	$505.29	$622.18	+$116.89
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.4¢	$1.3K	$188.32	$-1.1K
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 53.6¢	$182.9	$276.16	+$93.26	47% 676-773 (1449)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 57.4¢	$60.66	$85.58	+$24.92	35% 669-1223 (1892)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 53¢	$29.11	$44.48	+$15.38	57% 702-540 (1242)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 81¢	$42.12	$42.12	+$0	38% 509-835 (1344)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 76¢	$26.31	$33.41	+$7.1	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 95¢	$26.98	$27.12	+$0.14	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 78¢	$24.36	$25.1	+$0.73	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 55¢	$15.88	$23.39	+$7.51	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 80¢	$8	$8.1	+$0.1	46% 499-597 (1096)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 81¢	$6.05	$6.07	+$0.02	43% 577-770 (1347)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 50.8¢	$6.14	$4	+$1.92	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.8¢	$4.82	$1.9	+$2.08	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$5.27	$0.84	-$4.43	43% 580-772 (1352)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$974.63

Value

$985.86

PnL

+$11.23

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,819.49

Value

$810.5

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Both legs:

No$505.2977.6¢+$116.89

Yes$1,314.231.4¢$-1.1K

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$182.9

Value

$276.16

PnL

+$93.26

Record

47%

676-773 (1449)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$60.66

Value

$85.58

PnL

+$24.92

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$29.11

Value

$44.48

PnL

+$15.38

Record

57%

702-540 (1242)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$42.12

Value

$42.12

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

509-835 (1344)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$26.31

Value

$33.41

PnL

+$7.1

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$26.98

Value

$27.12

PnL

+$0.14

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$24.36

Value

$25.1

PnL

+$0.73

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$15.88

Value

$23.39

PnL

+$7.51

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

46%

499-597 (1096)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$6.05

Value

$6.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$6.14

Value

PnL

+$1.92

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.82

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$2.08

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.27

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$4.43

Record

43%

580-772 (1352)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+73 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.