Cerro Largo FC vs. CA Progreso: O/U 1.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 75¢ · $574 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 38%
$574.48
$24.85
63.4¢ → 75¢
+18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+9 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 59¢ | $251.54 | $336.81 | +$85.27 | 56% 4589-3558 (8147) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 70.7¢ | $173.59 | $144.86 | -$28.73 | 53% 852-766 (1618) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 28.4¢ | $101.68 | $75.18 | -$26.5 | 51% 2763-2694 (5457) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 70¢ | $12.35 | $10.42 | -$1.94 | 54% 244-207 (451) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $4.17 | $2.82 | -$1.35 | 33% 629-1267 (1896) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 29¢ | $2.9 | $2.1 | -$0.8 | 49% 1386-1434 (2820) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $1.93 | $1.27 | -$0.66 | 33% 620-1253 (1873) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $1.46 | $1.02 | -$0.44 | 42% 662-917 (1579) |
RN1Invested
$251.54
Value
$336.81
PnL
+$85.27
Record
56%
4589-3558 (8147)
VeryLucky888Invested
$173.59
Value
$144.86
PnL
-$28.73
Record
53%
852-766 (1618)
Invested
$101.68
Value
$75.18
PnL
-$26.5
Record
51%
2763-2694 (5457)
Invested
$12.35
Value
$10.42
PnL
-$1.94
Record
54%
244-207 (451)
Invested
$4.17
Value
$2.82
PnL
-$1.35
Record
33%
629-1267 (1896)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$0.8
Record
49%
1386-1434 (2820)
Invested
$1.93
Value
$1.27
PnL
-$0.66
Record
33%
620-1253 (1873)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$1.02
PnL
-$0.44
Record
42%
662-917 (1579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.