Will CA Progreso win on 2026-11-12?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 81¢ · $332 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$331.65
-$4.24
78.8¢ → 80.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 78.5¢ | $106.55 | $106.12 | -$0.43 | 51% 2643-2567 (5210) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 79¢ | $101.8 | $101.15 | -$0.64 | 55% 1693-1391 (3084) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $39.5 | $39.75 | +$0.25 | 32% 563-1172 (1735) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $39.28 | $36.47 | -$2.81 | 22% 185-650 (835) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $25.55 | $25.55 | +$0 | 34% 592-1166 (1758) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $15.36 | $14.65 | -$0.71 | 41% 590-850 (1440) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $3.98 | +$0.08 | 33% 587-1187 (1774) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $3.95 | $3.98 | +$0.02 | 49% 1313-1344 (2657) |
Invested
$106.55
Value
$106.12
PnL
-$0.43
Record
51%
2643-2567 (5210)
Invested
$101.8
Value
$101.15
PnL
-$0.64
Record
55%
1693-1391 (3084)
Invested
$39.5
Value
$39.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
32%
563-1172 (1735)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$39.28
Value
$36.47
PnL
-$2.81
Record
22%
185-650 (835)
Invested
$25.55
Value
$25.55
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
592-1166 (1758)
Invested
$15.36
Value
$14.65
PnL
-$0.71
Record
41%
590-850 (1440)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.98
PnL
+$0.08
Record
33%
587-1187 (1774)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$3.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
49%
1313-1344 (2657)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.