Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (74%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Cerro Largo FC win on 2026-11-12?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 27¢ · $305 held · ended Nov 12

Yes74¢No26¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$305.32

Combined PnL

-$46.19

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 26.5¢

-34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$133.08

Total Shares432

Combined PnL-$54.32

Yes4 traders

Total Value$29.7

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$8.13

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 41.2¢	$182.15	$142.54	-$39.61	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.2¢	$140.67	$92.29	-$48.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.3¢	$41.48	$50.25	+$8.77
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$68.69	$38.91	-$29.78	35% 657-1232 (1889)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 49.6¢	$65.47	$35.65	-$29.83	23% 193-656 (849)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$26.88	$34.56	+$7.68	30% 233-531 (764)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$26.35	$23.96	-$2.39	42% 662-917 (1579)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$8.47	$11.45	+$2.98	34% 639-1259 (1898)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$5.3	$7.3	+$2	33% 620-1253 (1873)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$5.1	$7.3	+$2.2	53% 852-766 (1618)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$2.7	$3.65	+$0.95	49% 1386-1434 (2820)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$182.15

Value

$142.54

PnL

-$39.61

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

Both legs:

No$140.6741.2¢-$48.38

Yes$41.4860.3¢+$8.77

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$68.69

Value

$38.91

PnL

-$29.78

Record

35%

657-1232 (1889)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$65.47

Value

$35.65

PnL

-$29.83

Record

23%

193-656 (849)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$26.88

Value

$34.56

PnL

+$7.68

Record

30%

233-531 (764)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$26.35

Value

$23.96

PnL

-$2.39

Record

42%

662-917 (1579)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.47

Value

$11.45

PnL

+$2.98

Record

34%

639-1259 (1898)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.3

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$2

Record

33%

620-1253 (1873)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.1

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$2.2

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.7

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.95

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.