U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$1.7K
$106.67
65.3¢ → 81.5¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
130h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 54.4¢ | $1.4K | $870.14 | +$82.96 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
 clazzy1 | Noavg 84.1¢ | $420.5 | $405 | -$28 | 62% 391-242 (633) |
 StarMaster | Noavg 65.3¢ | $221.28 | $234.77 | +$13.49 | 53% 1839-1620 (3459) |
10 101456CTR | Yesavg 14¢ | $106.48 | $163.52 | +$57.04 | 48% 110-120 (230) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.1¢ | $67.43 | $45.17 | -$22.26 | 65% 490-264 (754) |
 crypto-basenjiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $14.75 | $18.18 | +$3.44 | 38% 171-281 (452) |
Invested
$1,372.27
Value
$870.14
PnL
+$82.96
Record
36%
15508-27510 (43018)
clazzy1Invested
$420.5
Value
$405
PnL
-$28
Record
62%
391-242 (633)
StarMasterInvested
$221.28
Value
$234.77
PnL
+$13.49
Record
53%
1839-1620 (3459)
Invested
$106.48
Value
$163.52
PnL
+$57.04
Record
48%
110-120 (230)
Invested
$67.43
Value
$45.17
PnL
-$22.26
Record
65%
490-264 (754)
crypto-basenjiCTR<$100Invested
$14.75
Value
$18.18
PnL
+$3.44
Record
38%
171-281 (452)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.