Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$416.06

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 93.9¢

+44% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,526

Combined PnL+$492

Yes2 traders

Total Value$6.8

Total Shares88

Combined PnL-$75.93

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

790h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 67.9¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	+$105.48	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
ME merod	Noavg 65.7¢	$298.03	$418.98	+$120.95	43% 3101-4154 (7255)
KO korda77	Noavg 50.8¢	$128.76	$234.09	+$105.33	44% 6442-8142 (14584)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 68.1¢	$112.44	$152.3	+$39.86	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 61.7¢	$90.17	$134.96	+$44.79	49% 8797-9307 (18104)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 47.5¢	$35.2	$65.99	+$30.79	53% 8200-7292 (15492)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 65.6¢	$43.3	$60.92	+$17.62	43% 3158-4259 (7417)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 78.2¢	$45.6	$53.85	+$8.25	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$25.88	$39.02	+$13.13	77% 12233-3755 (15988)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 92.2¢	$47.53	$22.8	-$1.43	15% 459-2699 (3158)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 65.5¢	$11.04	$15.56	+$4.52	52% 6246-5776 (12022)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 55.5¢	$4.08	$6.78	+$2.7	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 46.8¢	$643.21	$3.85	-$76.28	20% 2580-10222 (12802)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 51.8¢	$57.49	$2.95	+$0.35	38% 3057-4942 (7999)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,336.21

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$105.48

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

merod

Invested

$298.03

Value

$418.98

PnL

+$120.95

Record

43%

3101-4154 (7255)

korda77

Invested

$128.76

Value

$234.09

PnL

+$105.33

Record

44%

6442-8142 (14584)

godblessme2026

Invested

$112.44

Value

$152.3

PnL

+$39.86

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

smallreceipt

Invested

$90.17

Value

$134.96

PnL

+$44.79

Record

49%

8797-9307 (18104)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$35.2

Value

$65.99

PnL

+$30.79

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$43.3

Value

$60.92

PnL

+$17.62

Record

43%

3158-4259 (7417)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$45.6

Value

$53.85

PnL

+$8.25

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$25.88

Value

$39.02

PnL

+$13.13

Record

77%

12233-3755 (15988)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$47.53

Value

$22.8

PnL

-$1.43

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$11.04

Value

$15.56

PnL

+$4.52

Record

52%

6246-5776 (12022)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$4.08

Value

$6.78

PnL

+$2.7

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$643.21

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$76.28

Record

20%

2580-10222 (12802)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.49

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.35

Record

38%

3057-4942 (7999)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

790h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.1%

93.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.