Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 39¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31, 2027

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Fri, Dec 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$345.09

Smart Money Entry

28.6¢ → 38.8¢

+35% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,137

Combined PnL+$310.49

No4 traders

Total Value$275.05

Total Shares354

Combined PnL+$34.6

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

752h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR	Yesavg 24.3¢	$1.5K	$447.93	+$166.38	40% 304-464 (768)
DirkDiggler67CTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$377.63	$438.99	+$61.36	60% 524-343 (867)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 74¢	$382.92	$376.13	-$5.2	14% 508-3080 (3588)
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$278.19	$279.83	+$1.63
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.3¢	$102.84	$96.29	-$6.83
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$176.95	$219.9	+$42.95	53% 23096-20320 (43416)
└ No leg	Noavg 48.9¢	$78.45	$119.28	+$40.83
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.3¢	$86.55	$100.63	+$2.12
2B9S	Noavg 72.5¢	$457.45	$166.91	+$11.88	18% 4425-20750 (25175)
ifyoulovemeCTR	Yesavg 25.5¢	$108.21	$164.26	+$56.05	55% 338-278 (616)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR	Yesavg 28.9¢	$256.28	$99.31	+$25.33	51% 290-283 (573)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$46.97	$75.17	+$28.2	49% 8976-9501 (18477)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$63.65	$65.02	+$1.37	44% 2229-2873 (5102)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$38	$32.28	-$5.72	56% 18376-14300 (32676)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 40.3¢	$0.46	$0.69	+$0.24	47% 1710-1898 (3608)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,457.02

Value

$447.93

PnL

+$166.38

Record

40%

304-464 (768)

DirkDiggler67CTR

Yes

Invested

$377.63

Value

$438.99

PnL

+$61.36

Record

60%

524-343 (867)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$382.92

Value

$376.13

PnL

-$5.2

Record

14%

508-3080 (3588)

Both legs:

No$278.1974¢+$1.63

Yes$102.8427.3¢-$6.83

cigarettesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$176.95

Value

$219.9

PnL

+$42.95

Record

53%

23096-20320 (43416)

Both legs:

No$78.4548.9¢+$40.83

Yes$86.5533.3¢+$2.12

2B9S

Invested

$457.45

Value

$166.91

PnL

+$11.88

Record

18%

4425-20750 (25175)

ifyoulovemeCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.21

Value

$164.26

PnL

+$56.05

Record

55%

338-278 (616)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR

Yes

Invested

$256.28

Value

$99.31

PnL

+$25.33

Record

51%

290-283 (573)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$46.97

Value

$75.17

PnL

+$28.2

Record

49%

8976-9501 (18477)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.65

Value

$65.02

PnL

+$1.37

Record

44%

2229-2873 (5102)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$38

Value

$32.28

PnL

-$5.72

Record

56%

18376-14300 (32676)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.69

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

1710-1898 (3608)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

752h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.