Türkiye vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (42%) · Under at 89¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 12

Over11¢Under89¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 42%

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$447.84

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 88.8¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over11%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares11,536

Combined PnL+$401.54

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares8,013

Combined PnL+$46.3

Under — 42%Over — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 83.9¢	$5.7K	$6.2K	+$546.23	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
CI cigarettes	Underavg 83.5¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$144.29	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 15.6¢	$693.34	$498.43	-$194.91	32% 538-1128 (1666)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 5¢	$50.02	$196.09	+$146.06	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
RN1CTR	Overavg 6.3¢	$108.81	$195.8	+$86.99	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 12.9¢	$98.13	$94.5	-$3.63	36% 209-369 (578)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 83.3¢	$25	$24.12	-$0.88	46% 440-515 (955)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 95¢	$10.97	$11.42	+$0.45	41% 552-797 (1349)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 5.2¢	$2.6	$9.8	+$7.2	54% 455-382 (837)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 5.4¢	$1.62	$5.88	+$4.26	33% 558-1111 (1669)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 79.6¢	$2.91	$2.94	+$0.03	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 4¢	$0.08	$0.4	+$0.32	54% 994-856 (1850)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$5,715.68

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$546.23

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

cigarettes

Under

Invested

$4,228.37

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$144.29

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$693.34

Value

$498.43

PnL

-$194.91

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$50.02

Value

$196.09

PnL

+$146.06

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$108.81

Value

$195.8

PnL

+$86.99

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$98.13

Value

$94.5

PnL

-$3.63

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$25

Value

$24.12

PnL

-$0.88

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$10.97

Value

$11.42

PnL

+$0.45

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.6

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$7.2

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.62

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$4.26

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.91

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.32

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 89%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.2%

88.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.