Türkiye vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 72¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 12

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.8K

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 71.5¢

-14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 14 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$9.7K

Total Shares13,418

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,694

Combined PnL-$45.56

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 81.2¢	$6.6K	$6.3K	-$308.75	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 25.4¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$115.73	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.4¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$257.56
└ Under leg	Underavg 78¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$141.83
FO forecastication4	Underavg 86¢	$2.9K	$2.0K	-$862.23	27% 102-276 (378)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 86.3¢	$951.22	$675.74	-$275.48	40% 78-117 (195)
RN1CTR	Overavg 33¢	$728.42	$674.44	-$53.98	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 87.1¢	$874.38	$602.19	-$272.19	46% 440-515 (955)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 31.1¢	$271.28	$266.44	-$4.84	36% 209-369 (578)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Underavg 88¢	$105.8	$114.74	+$8.94	41% 552-797 (1349)
└ Under leg	Underavg 88¢	$91.03	$61.03	-$30
└ Over leg	Overavg 11¢	$14.77	$53.71	+$38.94
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 36.8¢	$111.89	$92.49	-$19.41	35% 7-13 (20)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 65.3¢	$495.4	$68.52	+$165.86	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
└ Under leg	Underavg 65.3¢	$34.25	$34.9	-$79.44
└ Over leg	Overavg 11.4¢	$11.43	$33.62	+$245.29
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$14.4	$48	+$33.6	52% 352-329 (681)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 86.5¢	$56.41	$40.06	-$3.16	54% 994-856 (1850)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 28.1¢	$36.34	$36.91	+$0.57	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$21	$20	-$1	54% 455-382 (837)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 89.8¢	$18.85	$13.76	-$5.1	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$9.17	$6.37	-$2.8	32% 538-1128 (1666)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 17.4¢	$3.6	$5.9	+$2.3	14% 29-185 (214)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$6,641.1

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$308.75

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,834.04

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$115.73

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Both legs:

Over$2,123.3225.4¢+$257.56

Under$1,710.7378¢-$141.83

forecastication4

Under

Invested

$2,852

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$862.23

Record

27%

102-276 (378)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$951.22

Value

$675.74

PnL

-$275.48

Record

40%

78-117 (195)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$728.42

Value

$674.44

PnL

-$53.98

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$874.38

Value

$602.19

PnL

-$272.19

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$271.28

Value

$266.44

PnL

-$4.84

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

sentrioARB<$100

Under

Invested

$105.8

Value

$114.74

PnL

+$8.94

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

Both legs:

Invested

$111.89

Value

$92.49

PnL

-$19.41

Record

35%

7-13 (20)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$495.4

Value

$68.52

PnL

+$165.86

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

Both legs:

Under$34.2565.3¢-$79.44

Over$11.4311.4¢+$245.29

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.4

Value

$48

PnL

+$33.6

Record

52%

352-329 (681)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$56.41

Value

$40.06

PnL

-$3.16

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.34

Value

$36.91

PnL

+$0.57

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21

Value

$20

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$18.85

Value

$13.76

PnL

-$5.1

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.17

Value

$6.37

PnL

-$2.8

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.6

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$2.3

Record

14%

29-185 (214)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 14 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.