Türkiye vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 77¢ · $862 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
2 arb excluded
$861.79
$1.8
76¢ → 76.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $293.25 | $303.01 | +$9.76 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 23¢ | $172.44 | $183.69 | +$11.25 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 76.9¢ | $120.81 | $119.32 | -$1.49 | |
DA darkumbreon88 | Underavg 75.9¢ | $260.5 | $260.7 | +$0.2 | 61% 959-608 (1567) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 76¢ | $187.96 | $189.2 | +$1.24 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $65.26 | $67.23 | +$1.97 | 41% 544-784 (1328) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 23¢ | $35.41 | $37.72 | +$2.31 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 76.9¢ | $29.85 | $29.51 | -$0.34 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $23.3 | $23.3 | +$0 | 53% 933-821 (1754) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Overavg 24¢ | $14.4 | $14.7 | +$0.3 | 52% 352-328 (680) |
SU suntori<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $2.85 | $2.83 | -$0.02 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 22¢ | $0.73 | $0.82 | +$0.08 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
Invested
$293.25
Value
$303.01
PnL
+$9.76
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Both legs:
Invested
$260.5
Value
$260.7
PnL
+$0.2
Record
61%
959-608 (1567)
Invested
$187.96
Value
$189.2
PnL
+$1.24
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
Invested
$65.26
Value
$67.23
PnL
+$1.97
Record
41%
544-784 (1328)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.3
Value
$23.3
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
933-821 (1754)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$14.4
Value
$14.7
PnL
+$0.3
Record
52%
352-328 (680)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.83
PnL
-$0.02
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.82
PnL
+$0.08
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.