Türkiye vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 59¢ · $376 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
2 arb excluded
$376.34
$6.17
57.6¢ → 58.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $94.2 | $94.4 | +$0.19 | 51% 2462-2334 (4796) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 42¢ | $51.19 | $49.97 | -$1.22 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 57.1¢ | $43.01 | $44.42 | +$1.41 | |
 nigiri99ARB<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $136.5 | $83.15 | -$1.73 | 51% 327-309 (636) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 59¢ | $46.61 | $46.21 | -$1.28 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 42¢ | $37.38 | $36.93 | -$0.45 | |
KY Kyn008<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $51.62 | $52.51 | +$0.89 | 40% 130-197 (327) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $49.28 | $50.4 | +$1.12 | 52% 180-163 (343) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 41.7¢ | $29.78 | $29.66 | -$0.11 | 53% 852-745 (1597) |
SU suntori<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $28.57 | $29.06 | +$0.49 | 47% 1449-1613 (3062) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 57¢ | $182.41 | $22.44 | +$4.06 | 48% 1986-2186 (4172) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $11.69 | $11.41 | -$0.28 | 41% 524-744 (1268) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $3.31 | $3.31 | -$0 | 46% 418-484 (902) |
Invested
$94.2
Value
$94.4
PnL
+$0.19
Record
51%
2462-2334 (4796)
Both legs:
nigiri99ARB<$100Invested
$136.5
Value
$83.15
PnL
-$1.73
Record
51%
327-309 (636)
Both legs:
Invested
$51.62
Value
$52.51
PnL
+$0.89
Record
40%
130-197 (327)
Invested
$49.28
Value
$50.4
PnL
+$1.12
Record
52%
180-163 (343)
Invested
$29.78
Value
$29.66
PnL
-$0.11
Record
53%
852-745 (1597)
Invested
$28.57
Value
$29.06
PnL
+$0.49
Record
47%
1449-1613 (3062)
Invested
$182.41
Value
$22.44
PnL
+$4.06
Record
48%
1986-2186 (4172)
Invested
$11.69
Value
$11.41
PnL
-$0.28
Record
41%
524-744 (1268)
Invested
$3.31
Value
$3.31
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
418-484 (902)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.