Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (65%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Türkiye vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 36¢ · $951 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 100%
$950.6
$294.68
34.4¢ → 35.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 35¢ | $360.37 | $513.06 | +$152.68 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 33¢ | $106.22 | $160.94 | +$54.72 | 52% 422-389 (811) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 34.4¢ | $88.8 | $129 | +$40.2 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Underavg 34¢ | $83.3 | $122.5 | +$39.2 | 58% 3202-2297 (5499) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 34.4¢ | $14.28 | $20.77 | +$6.49 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $2.95 | $4.34 | +$1.39 | 37% 325-557 (882) |
Invested
$360.37
Value
$513.06
PnL
+$152.68
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$106.22
Value
$160.94
PnL
+$54.72
Record
52%
422-389 (811)
Invested
$88.8
Value
$129
PnL
+$40.2
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Invested
$83.3
Value
$122.5
PnL
+$39.2
Record
58%
3202-2297 (5499)
Invested
$14.28
Value
$20.77
PnL
+$6.49
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$4.34
PnL
+$1.39
Record
37%
325-557 (882)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.