Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (86%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Türkiye vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 14¢ · $659 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
$659.1
-$21.72
15¢ → 14.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 86%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 15¢ | $440.63 | $426.56 | -$14.07 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 15¢ | $181.57 | $175.51 | -$6.05 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 15¢ | $34.14 | $33.26 | -$0.87 | 38% 351-584 (935) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 15.2¢ | $20.52 | $19.66 | -$0.86 | 55% 625-514 (1139) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 14¢ | $3.96 | $4.1 | +$0.14 | 48% 1375-1500 (2875) |
Invested
$440.63
Value
$426.56
PnL
-$14.07
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Invested
$181.57
Value
$175.51
PnL
-$6.05
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
Invested
$34.14
Value
$33.26
PnL
-$0.87
Record
38%
351-584 (935)
Invested
$20.52
Value
$19.66
PnL
-$0.86
Record
55%
625-514 (1139)
Invested
$3.96
Value
$4.1
PnL
+$0.14
Record
48%
1375-1500 (2875)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.