Türkiye vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 97¢ · $253 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$253.19
-$0.41
96¢ → 96.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 96¢ | $219.02 | $219.21 | +$0.19 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 96¢ | $13.13 | $13.17 | +$0.04 | 38% 351-584 (935) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.6¢ | $12.25 | $11.91 | -$0.34 | 38% 137-223 (360) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 3.5¢ | $7.79 | $7.71 | -$0.08 | 48% 1375-1500 (2875) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $1.4 | $1.19 | -$0.21 | 55% 625-514 (1139) |
Invested
$219.02
Value
$219.21
PnL
+$0.19
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Invested
$13.13
Value
$13.17
PnL
+$0.04
Record
38%
351-584 (935)
Invested
$12.25
Value
$11.91
PnL
-$0.34
Record
38%
137-223 (360)
Invested
$7.79
Value
$7.71
PnL
-$0.08
Record
48%
1375-1500 (2875)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.19
PnL
-$0.21
Record
55%
625-514 (1139)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.