Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (58%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Türkiye vs. Belgium: Türkiye O/U 1.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 42¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 88%
$1.1K
$86.96
35.8¢ → 42¢
+17% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 58%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 34.1¢ | $780.28 | $891.53 | +$111.25 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 58.6¢ | $96.95 | $57.91 | -$39.03 | 52% 187-174 (361) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 34.4¢ | $42.43 | $51.84 | +$9.41 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Overavg 55.5¢ | $32.09 | $37.59 | +$5.51 | 49% 19-20 (39) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $5.82 | $6.79 | +$0.97 | 33% 558-1111 (1669) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 35¢ | $5.6 | $5.6 | +$0 | 32% 534-1112 (1646) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Underavg 25.9¢ | $4.1 | $5.55 | +$1.45 | 27% 182-490 (672) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $6.55 | $3.95 | -$2.6 | 54% 994-856 (1850) |
Invested
$780.28
Value
$891.53
PnL
+$111.25
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$96.95
Value
$57.91
PnL
-$39.03
Record
52%
187-174 (361)
Invested
$42.43
Value
$51.84
PnL
+$9.41
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$32.09
Value
$37.59
PnL
+$5.51
Record
49%
19-20 (39)
Invested
$5.82
Value
$6.79
PnL
+$0.97
Record
33%
558-1111 (1669)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$5.6
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
534-1112 (1646)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$5.55
PnL
+$1.45
Record
27%
182-490 (672)
Invested
$6.55
Value
$3.95
PnL
-$2.6
Record
54%
994-856 (1850)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.