Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (66%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Türkiye vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 34¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over66¢Under34¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$163.39

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 34¢

-33% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over66%

Under34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,031

Combined PnL-$176.76

Over3 traders

Total Value$38.03

Total Shares68

Combined PnL+$13.37

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
P1 P1kasoCTR	Underavg 68.4¢	$808.03	$779.9	-$28.13	1% 1-107 (108)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 37.1¢	$325.57	$245.89	-$79.68	46% 440-515 (955)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 59.6¢	$183.69	$108.95	-$74.74	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 30¢	$102.11	$100.41	-$1.7	33% 558-1111 (1669)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 29.7¢	$51.12	$54.23	+$3.11	33% 553-1135 (1688)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 68.3¢	$36.93	$38.78	+$1.85	41% 552-797 (1349)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 33¢	$19.04	$34.62	+$15.58	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$31.03	$34.29	+$3.26	32% 534-1112 (1646)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 69¢	$7.79	$7.45	-$0.34	54% 994-856 (1850)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$3.98	$3.59	-$0.39	32% 538-1128 (1666)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Overavg 66¢	$4.62	$2.38	-$2.24	27% 182-490 (672)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 33¢	$1	$1.03	+$0.03	14% 29-185 (214)

P1kasoCTR

Under

Invested

$808.03

Value

$779.9

PnL

-$28.13

Record

1-107 (108)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$325.57

Value

$245.89

PnL

-$79.68

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$183.69

Value

$108.95

PnL

-$74.74

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$102.11

Value

$100.41

PnL

-$1.7

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.12

Value

$54.23

PnL

+$3.11

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.93

Value

$38.78

PnL

+$1.85

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$19.04

Value

$34.62

PnL

+$15.58

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.03

Value

$34.29

PnL

+$3.26

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.79

Value

$7.45

PnL

-$0.34

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.98

Value

$3.59

PnL

-$0.39

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

SlickRick123<$100

Over

Invested

$4.62

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$2.24

Record

27%

182-490 (672)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

14%

29-185 (214)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 34%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.