Spread: Türkiye (-2.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Belgium (29%) · Belgium at 97¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Belgium
7
Belgium 29%
$12.0K
-$7.72
96.9¢ → 96.8¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBelgium at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Belgium. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0F 0F62 | Belgiumavg 96.9¢ | $11.1K | $11.1K | -$16.72 | 96% 22-1 (23) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Türkiyeavg 3.2¢ | $481.34 | $491.76 | +$10.41 | 51% 2462-2334 (4796) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR | Türkiyeavg 3.2¢ | $221.12 | $218.84 | -$2.28 | 38% 72-117 (189) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Belgiumavg 96.8¢ | $90.09 | $89.95 | -$0.14 | 48% 1986-2186 (4172) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Türkiyeavg 3.2¢ | $36.12 | $37.17 | +$1.04 | 41% 524-744 (1268) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Türkiyeavg 3.3¢ | $27.43 | $27.22 | -$0.21 | 50% 1178-1197 (2375) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Türkiyeavg 3.1¢ | $3.81 | $3.98 | +$0.18 | 53% 852-745 (1597) |
Invested
$11,112.52
Value
$11.1K
PnL
-$16.72
Record
96%
22-1 (23)
Invested
$481.34
Value
$491.76
PnL
+$10.41
Record
51%
2462-2334 (4796)
Invested
$221.12
Value
$218.84
PnL
-$2.28
Record
38%
72-117 (189)
Invested
$90.09
Value
$89.95
PnL
-$0.14
Record
48%
1986-2186 (4172)
Invested
$36.12
Value
$37.17
PnL
+$1.04
Record
41%
524-744 (1268)
Invested
$27.43
Value
$27.22
PnL
-$0.21
Record
50%
1178-1197 (2375)
Invested
$3.81
Value
$3.98
PnL
+$0.18
Record
53%
852-745 (1597)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.