Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Belgium (30%) · Belgium at 90¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Türkiye11¢Belgium89¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Belgium

Consensus Traders

Belgium 30%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$0.32

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 89.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBelgium at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Belgium

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Türkiye11%

Belgium90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Belgium3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,475

Combined PnL-$11.15

Türkiye7 traders

Total Value$423.01

Total Shares3,901

Combined PnL+$10.83

Belgium — 30%Türkiye — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-37 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Belgium. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTürkiye 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Türkiye 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Belgiumavg 89.8¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$11.15	52% 349-325 (674)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Türkiyeavg 10¢	$144.02	$151.22	+$7.2	36% 204-357 (561)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Türkiyeavg 10¢	$113.05	$118.76	+$5.7	38% 73-117 (190)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Türkiyeavg 10¢	$67.54	$67.54	+$0	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Türkiyeavg 11¢	$66.81	$63.77	-$3.04	46% 433-503 (936)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Belgiumavg 90¢	$27	$27	+$0	55% 1636-1337 (2973)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Türkiyeavg 10¢	$15	$15.75	+$0.75	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
SE sentrio<$100	Belgiumavg 90¢	$6.5	$6.5	+$0	41% 534-766 (1300)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Türkiyeavg 10¢	$4.27	$4.49	+$0.21	53% 920-807 (1727)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Türkiyeavg 10¢	$1.5	$1.5	+$0	59% 13-9 (22)

nigiri99

Belgium

Invested

$3,090.23

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$11.15

Record

52%

349-325 (674)

LuckyLooCTR

Türkiye

Invested

$144.02

Value

$151.22

PnL

+$7.2

Record

36%

204-357 (561)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Türkiye

Invested

$113.05

Value

$118.76

PnL

+$5.7

Record

38%

73-117 (190)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$67.54

Value

$67.54

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$66.81

Value

$63.77

PnL

-$3.04

Record

46%

433-503 (936)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Belgium

Invested

$27

Value

$27

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

1636-1337 (2973)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$15

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

sentrio<$100

Belgium

Invested

$6.5

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

534-766 (1300)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.49

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

920-807 (1727)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

13-9 (22)

Research grade

NeutralBelgium at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Belgium

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-37 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Belgium. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTürkiye 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Türkiye 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Belgium wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.