Spread: Belgium (-3.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Türkiye (38%) · Türkiye at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Belgium5¢Türkiye95¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Türkiye

Consensus Traders

Türkiye 38%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$9.24

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 95.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTürkiye at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Türkiye

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Belgium5%

Türkiye95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Türkiye3 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,371

Combined PnL+$50.67

Belgium5 traders

Total Value$163.99

Total Shares3,661

Combined PnL-$41.43

Türkiye — 38%Belgium — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Türkiye. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBelgium 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Türkiye 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Türkiyeavg 94¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$41.93	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
FL Flaznorp	Türkiyeavg 94.6¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$9.45	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
P1 P1kaso	Türkiyeavg 94.2¢	$331.58	$330.88	-$0.7	1% 1-107 (108)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Belgiumavg 6¢	$116.02	$87.98	-$28.04	33% 558-1111 (1669)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Belgiumavg 4.7¢	$54.81	$45.92	-$8.89	46% 440-515 (955)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR<$100	Belgiumavg 5.8¢	$20.42	$16.19	-$4.22	58% 47-34 (81)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Belgiumavg 4.7¢	$12.7	$12.57	-$0.13	41% 552-797 (1349)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Belgiumavg 5.1¢	$1.47	$1.33	-$0.14	54% 994-856 (1850)

GoalLineGhost

Türkiye

Invested

$1,873.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$41.93

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

Flaznorp

Türkiye

Invested

$1,039.47

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.45

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

P1kaso

Türkiye

Invested

$331.58

Value

$330.88

PnL

-$0.7

Record

1-107 (108)

MadridTimeCTR

Belgium

Invested

$116.02

Value

$87.98

PnL

-$28.04

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Belgium

Invested

$54.81

Value

$45.92

PnL

-$8.89

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

Zzzz87CTR<$100

Belgium

Invested

$20.42

Value

$16.19

PnL

-$4.22

Record

58%

47-34 (81)

sentrioCTR<$100

Belgium

Invested

$12.7

Value

$12.57

PnL

-$0.13

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Belgium

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$0.14

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

Research grade

NeutralTürkiye at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Türkiye

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Türkiye. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBelgium 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Türkiye 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Türkiye wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.6%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.50

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.