Spread: Belgium (-2.5)

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Türkiye (18%) · Türkiye at 85¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Belgium15¢Türkiye85¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Türkiye

Consensus Traders

Türkiye 18%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$201.84

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 84.6¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralTürkiye at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Türkiye

2 of 11 top traders (18%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Belgium15%

Türkiye85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Türkiye2 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,766

Combined PnL+$122.8

Belgium9 traders

Total Value$361.55

Total Shares1,876

Combined PnL+$79.04

Türkiye — 18%Belgium — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Türkiye. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBelgium 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Belgium 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065	Türkiyeavg 81.1¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$125.33	0% 0-61 (61)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Türkiyeavg 80.6¢	$811.77	$903.54	+$91.77	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
└ Türkiye leg	Türkiyeavg 80.6¢	$481.67	$495.39	+$13.72
└ Belgium leg	Belgiumavg 13.9¢	$330.1	$408.15	+$78.05
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Belgiumavg 18.6¢	$796.95	$820.42	+$23.46	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
└ Belgium leg	Belgiumavg 18.6¢	$544.33	$585.35	+$41.02
└ Türkiye leg	Türkiyeavg 86¢	$252.62	$235.06	-$17.56
SN SnakeBallCTR	Belgiumavg 12.1¢	$131.37	$216.86	+$85.49	46% 440-515 (955)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Türkiyeavg 86.8¢	$94.05	$91.52	-$2.53	65% 136-72 (208)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Belgiumavg 20¢	$103.61	$80.3	-$23.31	33% 553-1135 (1688)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Belgiumavg 13¢	$19.14	$25.71	+$6.57	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Belgiumavg 12.8¢	$13.62	$17.57	+$3.95	54% 994-856 (1850)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Belgiumavg 12¢	$7.96	$13.26	+$5.3	41% 552-797 (1349)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Belgiumavg 15.1¢	$2.9	$3.33	+$0.43	33% 558-1111 (1669)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Belgiumavg 17.5¢	$2.5	$2.47	-$0.03	35% 7-13 (20)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Belgiumavg 10.7¢	$1.25	$1.81	+$0.56	14% 29-185 (214)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Belgiumavg 14¢	$0.16	$0.23	+$0.07	40% 78-117 (195)

0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065

Türkiye

Invested

$2,965.68

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$125.33

Record

0-61 (61)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$811.77

Value

$903.54

PnL

+$91.77

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Both legs:

Türkiye$481.6780.6¢+$13.72

Belgium$330.113.9¢+$78.05

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Belgium

Invested

$796.95

Value

$820.42

PnL

+$23.46

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

Both legs:

Belgium$544.3318.6¢+$41.02

Türkiye$252.6286¢-$17.56

SnakeBallCTR

Belgium

Invested

$131.37

Value

$216.86

PnL

+$85.49

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

thatsabing0<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$94.05

Value

$91.52

PnL

-$2.53

Record

65%

136-72 (208)

LightParadoxCTR

Belgium

Invested

$103.61

Value

$80.3

PnL

-$23.31

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Belgium

Invested

$19.14

Value

$25.71

PnL

+$6.57

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Belgium

Invested

$13.62

Value

$17.57

PnL

+$3.95

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

sentrioCTR<$100

Belgium

Invested

$7.96

Value

$13.26

PnL

+$5.3

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Belgium

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$0.43

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

fooooolCTR<$100

Belgium

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$0.03

Record

35%

7-13 (20)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Belgium

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.81

PnL

+$0.56

Record

14%

29-185 (214)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Belgium

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.23

PnL

+$0.07

Record

40%

78-117 (195)

Research grade

NeutralTürkiye at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Türkiye

2 of 11 top traders (18%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Türkiye. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBelgium 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Belgium 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Türkiye wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.2%

84.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.