Spread: Belgium (-1.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Türkiye (71%) · Türkiye at 70¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Türkiye
7
Türkiye 71%
$1.4K
$9.71
69.2¢ → 69.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralTürkiye at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Türkiye. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Türkiyeavg 69¢ | $850.01 | $859.02 | +$9.02 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
P1 P1kaso | Türkiyeavg 69.5¢ | $418.39 | $418.37 | -$0.02 | 1% 1-107 (108) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Türkiyeavg 69¢ | $51.24 | $51.8 | +$0.55 | 53% 177-159 (336) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Belgiumavg 31¢ | $24.18 | $23.79 | -$0.39 | 51% 283-275 (558) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Türkiyeavg 69¢ | $20.25 | $20.46 | +$0.21 | 53% 806-703 (1509) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Belgiumavg 29¢ | $7.83 | $8.24 | +$0.4 | 50% 1105-1107 (2212) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Türkiyeavg 71¢ | $5.69 | $5.63 | -$0.06 | 41% 490-712 (1202) |
Invested
$850.01
Value
$859.02
PnL
+$9.02
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
Invested
$418.39
Value
$418.37
PnL
-$0.02
Record
1%
1-107 (108)
Invested
$51.24
Value
$51.8
PnL
+$0.55
Record
53%
177-159 (336)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$24.18
Value
$23.79
PnL
-$0.39
Record
51%
283-275 (558)
Invested
$20.25
Value
$20.46
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
806-703 (1509)
Invested
$7.83
Value
$8.24
PnL
+$0.4
Record
50%
1105-1107 (2212)
Invested
$5.69
Value
$5.63
PnL
-$0.06
Record
41%
490-712 (1202)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.