Türkiye leading at halftime?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$97.06

Smart Money Entry

80.4¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,118

Combined PnL-$8.59

Yes7 traders

Total Value$56.9

Total Shares391

Combined PnL-$88.46

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 68.8¢	$880.11	$1.1K	+$182.22	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 74¢	$606.59	$565.15	-$41.44	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
RN1	Noavg 98¢	$571.27	$483.83	-$87.44	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 99¢	$537.12	$450.31	-$86.81	33% 553-1135 (1688)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 74¢	$46.1	$61.68	+$15.58	40% 78-117 (195)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$70.74	$55.03	-$15.7	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.5¢	$28.4	$33.44	+$5.04
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.3¢	$42.33	$21.59	-$20.74
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$28.98	$28.98	-$0	36% 209-369 (578)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$66.19	$16.07	-$50.12	32% 538-1128 (1666)
SM smithagent<$100	Noavg 30¢	$5.1	$14.11	+$9.01	43% 348-470 (818)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$3.08	$3.74	+$0.66	44% 389-495 (884)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$3.04	$3.7	+$0.65	27% 182-490 (672)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$2.91	$3.53	+$0.62	47% 532-590 (1122)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Noavg 77¢	$1	$1.29	+$0.29	14% 29-185 (214)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.05	$0.85	-$0.2	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 71¢	$40.11	$0.03	-$40.08	32% 534-1112 (1646)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$880.11

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$182.22

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

Flaznorp

Invested

$606.59

Value

$565.15

PnL

-$41.44

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

RN1

Invested

$571.27

Value

$483.83

PnL

-$87.44

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

LightParadox

Invested

$537.12

Value

$450.31

PnL

-$86.81

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$46.1

Value

$61.68

PnL

+$15.58

Record

40%

78-117 (195)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.74

Value

$55.03

PnL

-$15.7

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

Both legs:

No$28.470.5¢+$5.04

Yes$42.3333.3¢-$20.74

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.98

Value

$28.98

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.19

Value

$16.07

PnL

-$50.12

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

smithagent<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$14.11

PnL

+$9.01

Record

43%

348-470 (818)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.08

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0.66

Record

44%

389-495 (884)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.04

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.65

Record

27%

182-490 (672)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.91

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.62

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

NordhavenCap<$100

Invested

Value

$1.29

PnL

+$0.29

Record

14%

29-185 (214)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.2

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.11

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$40.08

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.