Belgium leading at halftime?

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (47%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 47%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$785.83

Smart Money Entry

41.8¢ → 100¢

+139% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,186

Combined PnL+$770.55

No8 traders

Total Value$32.22

Total Shares615

Combined PnL+$15.28

Yes — 47%No — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 34.3¢	$784.92	$1.4K	+$635.38	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 67.3¢	$374.62	$347.47	-$27.15	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Yesavg 39¢	$133.09	$275.14	+$142.05	40% 78-117 (195)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 60.1¢	$33.11	$48.51	+$15.4	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 81.8¢	$28.08	$22.71	+$7.36	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 9.6¢	$48.96	$16.48	+$130.36	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 45.1¢	$103.04	$11.41	-$91.63	36% 209-369 (578)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$13.8	$4.73	-$3.63	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$1	$2.15	+$1.15	14% 29-185 (214)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$7.19	$1.46	-$5.73	54% 994-856 (1850)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$5.45	$1.09	-$4.36	41% 552-797 (1349)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 94¢	$7.83	$1	-$6.83	33% 558-1111 (1669)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$1	$0.5	-$0.5	32% 534-1112 (1646)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$0.2	$0.25	+$0.05	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$6.1	$0.02	-$6.08	33% 553-1135 (1688)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$784.92

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$635.38

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$374.62

Value

$347.47

PnL

-$27.15

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Yes

Invested

$133.09

Value

$275.14

PnL

+$142.05

Record

40%

78-117 (195)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.11

Value

$48.51

PnL

+$15.4

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.08

Value

$22.71

PnL

+$7.36

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$48.96

Value

$16.48

PnL

+$130.36

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$103.04

Value

$11.41

PnL

-$91.63

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.8

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$3.63

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

NordhavenCap<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$1.15

Record

14%

29-185 (214)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$7.19

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$5.73

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$5.45

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$4.36

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$7.83

Value

PnL

-$6.83

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$6.1

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.08

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.