Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Türkiye vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 44¢ · $192 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 63%
$191.89
$0.21
43¢ → 43.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 43¢ | $104.84 | $104.84 | +$0 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $31.92 | $31.92 | +$0 | 52% 184-170 (354) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $23.16 | $23.37 | +$0.21 | 48% 2153-2339 (4492) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $13.57 | $13.57 | +$0 | 33% 551-1131 (1682) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $9.89 | $9.89 | +$0 | 50% 1226-1249 (2475) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $4.3 | $4.3 | +$0 | 52% 350-326 (676) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.15 | +$0 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $1.85 | $1.85 | +$0 | 53% 925-815 (1740) |
Invested
$104.84
Value
$104.84
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Invested
$31.92
Value
$31.92
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
184-170 (354)
Invested
$23.16
Value
$23.37
PnL
+$0.21
Record
48%
2153-2339 (4492)
Invested
$13.57
Value
$13.57
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
551-1131 (1682)
Invested
$9.89
Value
$9.89
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1226-1249 (2475)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.3
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
350-326 (676)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.15
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
925-815 (1740)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.