Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 Belgium?
3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (27%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 27%
$2.1K
$53.22
93¢ → 94.2¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-78 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 93¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$21.55 | 56% 4488-3464 (7952) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 92.9¢ | $345.36 | $345.72 | +$0.36 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $71.56 | $85.2 | +$13.64 | 32% 534-1112 (1646) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $46.71 | $38.99 | -$7.72 | 33% 553-1135 (1688) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $21.77 | $38.1 | +$20.84 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $34.01 | $31.85 | -$2.16 | 33% 558-1111 (1669) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $25.6 | $25.59 | -$0.01 | 41% 552-797 (1349) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.58 | $5.53 | +$3.95 | 52% 13-12 (25) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $1.16 | $3.7 | +$2.54 | 36% 209-369 (578) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.1¢ | $2.11 | $2.32 | +$0.21 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.9¢ | $1.38 | $1.4 | +$0.02 | 32% 538-1128 (1666) |
RN1Invested
$1,531.44
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$21.55
Record
56%
4488-3464 (7952)
Invested
$345.36
Value
$345.72
PnL
+$0.36
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$71.56
Value
$85.2
PnL
+$13.64
Record
32%
534-1112 (1646)
Invested
$46.71
Value
$38.99
PnL
-$7.72
Record
33%
553-1135 (1688)
Invested
$21.77
Value
$38.1
PnL
+$20.84
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$34.01
Value
$31.85
PnL
-$2.16
Record
33%
558-1111 (1669)
Invested
$25.6
Value
$25.59
PnL
-$0.01
Record
41%
552-797 (1349)
Invested
$1.58
Value
$5.53
PnL
+$3.95
Record
52%
13-12 (25)
Invested
$1.16
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$2.54
Record
36%
209-369 (578)
Invested
$2.11
Value
$2.32
PnL
+$0.21
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$1.38
Value
$1.4
PnL
+$0.02
Record
32%
538-1128 (1666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.