Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Belgium?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 97¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
1 arb excluded
$4.4K
-$7.92
97.2¢ → 96.9¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 97.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$5.16 | 33% 558-1109 (1667) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 97.3¢ | $903.21 | $899.12 | -$4.09 | 32% 538-1125 (1663) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97¢ | $663.56 | $665.61 | +$2.05 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 97.3¢ | $652.26 | $594.1 | -$2.59 | 33% 553-1132 (1685) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 97¢ | $246.13 | $246.97 | +$0.84 | 26% 152-428 (580) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 97¢ | $226.11 | $226.81 | +$0.7 | 59% 3534-2417 (5951) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 97¢ | $188.35 | $188.11 | -$0.23 | 53% 933-821 (1754) |
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $87.19 | $88.14 | +$1.51 | 33% 534-1108 (1642) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 97.1¢ | $52.31 | $52.17 | -$0.14 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 3¢ | $34.23 | $35.96 | +$1.65 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $67.2 | $67.91 | +$0.71 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $12.59 | $12.65 | +$0.06 | 41% 544-784 (1328) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $5 | $5 | -$0 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $2.99 | $2.78 | -$0.21 | 36% 209-368 (577) |
Invested
$1,428.72
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$5.16
Record
33%
558-1109 (1667)
Invested
$903.21
Value
$899.12
PnL
-$4.09
Record
32%
538-1125 (1663)
Invested
$663.56
Value
$665.61
PnL
+$2.05
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$652.26
Value
$594.1
PnL
-$2.59
Record
33%
553-1132 (1685)
Invested
$246.13
Value
$246.97
PnL
+$0.84
Record
26%
152-428 (580)
Invested
$226.11
Value
$226.81
PnL
+$0.7
Record
59%
3534-2417 (5951)
Invested
$188.35
Value
$188.11
PnL
-$0.23
Record
53%
933-821 (1754)
Invested
$87.19
Value
$88.14
PnL
+$1.51
Record
33%
534-1108 (1642)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.2
Value
$67.91
PnL
+$0.71
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$12.59
Value
$12.65
PnL
+$0.06
Record
41%
544-784 (1328)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
Invested
$2.99
Value
$2.78
PnL
-$0.21
Record
36%
209-368 (577)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.