Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Belgium?
7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 54%
$3.1K
$2.19
97.2¢ → 97¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$1.07 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 97.4¢ | $609.53 | $609.53 | +$0 | 59% 3534-2417 (5951) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 97.4¢ | $493.82 | $438.85 | +$0.61 | 32% 538-1125 (1663) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 97.3¢ | $315.46 | $315.53 | +$0.07 | 33% 534-1108 (1642) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 97.4¢ | $207.87 | $207.87 | +$0 | 26% 152-428 (580) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 97.4¢ | $205.04 | $204.66 | -$0.38 | 33% 558-1109 (1667) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 97.2¢ | $152.38 | $152.13 | -$0.25 | 53% 933-821 (1754) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $26.19 | $29.58 | +$3.4 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $30.14 | $28.53 | -$1.61 | 33% 553-1132 (1685) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $10.2 | $10.03 | -$0.17 | 44% 165-210 (375) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $8.23 | $8.11 | -$0.12 | 41% 544-784 (1328) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $7.49 | $6.22 | +$0.13 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $4.76 | $4.2 | -$0.56 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
Invested
$1,065.33
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$1.07
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$609.53
Value
$609.53
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3534-2417 (5951)
Invested
$493.82
Value
$438.85
PnL
+$0.61
Record
32%
538-1125 (1663)
Invested
$315.46
Value
$315.53
PnL
+$0.07
Record
33%
534-1108 (1642)
Invested
$207.87
Value
$207.87
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
152-428 (580)
Invested
$205.04
Value
$204.66
PnL
-$0.38
Record
33%
558-1109 (1667)
Invested
$152.38
Value
$152.13
PnL
-$0.25
Record
53%
933-821 (1754)
Invested
$26.19
Value
$29.58
PnL
+$3.4
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$30.14
Value
$28.53
PnL
-$1.61
Record
33%
553-1132 (1685)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$10.03
PnL
-$0.17
Record
44%
165-210 (375)
Invested
$8.23
Value
$8.11
PnL
-$0.12
Record
41%
544-784 (1328)
Invested
$7.49
Value
$6.22
PnL
+$0.13
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.56
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.