Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 0 Belgium?
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 55%
$2.9K
$101.94
98.6¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-16 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$22.16 | 56% 4488-3464 (7952) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 98.6¢ | $495.52 | $499.86 | +$4.34 | 59% 3535-2417 (5952) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 98.8¢ | $415.18 | $420.09 | +$4.91 | 33% 553-1135 (1688) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 98.6¢ | $154.57 | $154.88 | +$0.31 | 26% 153-428 (581) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $42.4 | $132.59 | +$90.18 | 32% 538-1128 (1666) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 98.5¢ | $93.91 | $108.13 | +$14.21 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $37.9 | $37.86 | -$0.04 | 54% 994-856 (1850) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $102.26 | $5.2 | -$10.68 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $12.65 | $0.42 | -$12.23 | 33% 558-1111 (1669) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $11.54 | $0.38 | -$11.15 | 32% 534-1112 (1646) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.08 | $0 | -$0.07 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
RN1Invested
$1,505.08
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$22.16
Record
56%
4488-3464 (7952)
Invested
$495.52
Value
$499.86
PnL
+$4.34
Record
59%
3535-2417 (5952)
Invested
$415.18
Value
$420.09
PnL
+$4.91
Record
33%
553-1135 (1688)
Invested
$154.57
Value
$154.88
PnL
+$0.31
Record
26%
153-428 (581)
Invested
$42.4
Value
$132.59
PnL
+$90.18
Record
32%
538-1128 (1666)
Invested
$93.91
Value
$108.13
PnL
+$14.21
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$37.9
Value
$37.86
PnL
-$0.04
Record
54%
994-856 (1850)
Invested
$102.26
Value
$5.2
PnL
-$10.68
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$12.65
Value
$0.42
PnL
-$12.23
Record
33%
558-1111 (1669)
Invested
$11.54
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$11.15
Record
32%
534-1112 (1646)
Invested
$0.08
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.07
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.