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6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $311 held · ends Nov 12

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$311.24

Combined PnL

$3.64

Smart Money Entry

95.7¢ → 95.7¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$277.7

Total Shares287

Combined PnL+$3.81

Yes4 traders

Total Value$33.54

Total Shares754

Combined PnL-$0.17

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$93.32	$93.27	-$0.05	33% 553-1132 (1685)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 95.6¢	$167.47	$63.87	+$3.93	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$52.11	$52.08	-$0.03	33% 558-1109 (1667)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$47.3	$47.33	+$0.02	53% 933-821 (1754)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$21.9	$21.43	-$0.48	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$18.47	$18.39	-$0.08	32% 538-1125 (1663)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$10.89	$11.12	+$0.23	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$2.75	$2.76	+$0	59% 3534-2417 (5951)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$0.79	$0.87	+$0.08	41% 544-784 (1328)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$0.13	$0.13	-$0	49% 1228-1254 (2482)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$93.32

Value

$93.27

PnL

-$0.05

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

38791873984189

Invested

$167.47

Value

$63.87

PnL

+$3.93

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$52.11

Value

$52.08

PnL

-$0.03

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$47.3

Value

$47.33

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.9

Value

$21.43

PnL

-$0.48

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$18.47

Value

$18.39

PnL

-$0.08

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.89

Value

$11.12

PnL

+$0.23

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3534-2417 (5951)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.87

PnL

+$0.08

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.8%

95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.