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4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $272 held · ends Nov 12

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$272.29

Combined PnL

$16.62

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 92.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$202.9

Total Shares219

Combined PnL+$1.42

Yes4 traders

Total Value$69.38

Total Shares880

Combined PnL+$15.2

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 92¢	$107.52	$108.11	+$0.58	40% 77-117 (194)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 92¢	$55.38	$55.98	+$0.6	52% 761-712 (1473)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$34.35	$39.26	+$4.91	33% 553-1132 (1685)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 92¢	$33.35	$33.53	+$0.18	59% 3534-2417 (5951)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$5	$14.8	+$9.8	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$13.79	$14.2	+$0.41	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92¢	$5.23	$5.28	+$0.06	53% 933-821 (1754)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.05	$1.13	+$0.07	51% 2532-2437 (4969)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$107.52

Value

$108.11

PnL

+$0.58

Record

40%

77-117 (194)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$55.38

Value

$55.98

PnL

+$0.6

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.35

Value

$39.26

PnL

+$4.91

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$33.35

Value

$33.53

PnL

+$0.18

Record

59%

3534-2417 (5951)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$14.8

PnL

+$9.8

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.79

Value

$14.2

PnL

+$0.41

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.23

Value

$5.28

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.