Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Belgium?
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 70%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$3.01
96.9¢ → 100¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-6 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$86.88 | 56% 4488-3464 (7952) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 97.1¢ | $287.14 | $274.72 | -$12.42 | 32% 534-1112 (1646) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $118.88 | $136.87 | +$17.99 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 96.8¢ | $103.58 | $99.4 | -$4.17 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $15.3 | $37.47 | +$22.16 | |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $55.44 | $127.52 | +$72.08 | 32% 538-1128 (1666) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $89.91 | $88.11 | -$1.81 | 59% 3535-2417 (5952) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $78.39 | $75 | -$3.39 | 33% 558-1111 (1669) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $25.54 | $58.5 | +$32.96 | 33% 553-1135 (1688) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 93.1¢ | $32.6 | $32.54 | -$0.06 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $19.38 | $18.58 | -$0.8 | 54% 994-856 (1850) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $15.09 | $13.88 | -$1.21 | 52% 352-329 (681) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $259.89 | $9.97 | +$4.54 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
RN1Invested
$2,104.67
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$86.88
Record
56%
4488-3464 (7952)
Invested
$287.14
Value
$274.72
PnL
-$12.42
Record
32%
534-1112 (1646)
Invested
$118.88
Value
$136.87
PnL
+$17.99
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Both legs:
Invested
$55.44
Value
$127.52
PnL
+$72.08
Record
32%
538-1128 (1666)
Invested
$89.91
Value
$88.11
PnL
-$1.81
Record
59%
3535-2417 (5952)
Invested
$78.39
Value
$75
PnL
-$3.39
Record
33%
558-1111 (1669)
Invested
$25.54
Value
$58.5
PnL
+$32.96
Record
33%
553-1135 (1688)
Invested
$32.6
Value
$32.54
PnL
-$0.06
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$19.38
Value
$18.58
PnL
-$0.8
Record
54%
994-856 (1850)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$15.09
Value
$13.88
PnL
-$1.21
Record
52%
352-329 (681)
Invested
$259.89
Value
$9.97
PnL
+$4.54
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.