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8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$3.2

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 94¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,458

Combined PnL+$23.54

Yes2 traders

Total Value$166.56

Total Shares2,768

Combined PnL-$26.74

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 93¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$14.56	39% 74-117 (191)
NM NM-P	Noavg 93¢	$325.5	$329	+$3.5	59% 3534-2416 (5950)
GC GC-P	Noavg 93¢	$325.5	$329	+$3.5	26% 152-427 (579)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$190.46	$163.25	-$27.21	47% 1547-1731 (3278)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 93¢	$135.08	$135.08	-$0	46% 438-515 (953)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 93¢	$79.98	$79.98	+$0	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 94¢	$44.43	$43.96	-$0.47	32% 536-1124 (1660)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 93¢	$17.71	$17.71	+$0	41% 543-780 (1323)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 93¢	$47.23	$5.49	+$2.45	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$2.84	$3.31	+$0.47	53% 925-815 (1740)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$1,353.95

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$14.56

Record

39%

74-117 (191)

NM-P

Invested

$325.5

Value

$329

PnL

+$3.5

Record

59%

3534-2416 (5950)

GC-P

Invested

$325.5

Value

$329

PnL

+$3.5

Record

26%

152-427 (579)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$190.46

Value

$163.25

PnL

-$27.21

Record

47%

1547-1731 (3278)

SnakeBall

Invested

$135.08

Value

$135.08

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

438-515 (953)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$79.98

Value

$79.98

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$44.43

Value

$43.96

PnL

-$0.47

Record

32%

536-1124 (1660)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$17.71

Value

$17.71

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$47.23

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$2.45

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.84

Value

$3.31

PnL

+$0.47

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.