Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Belgium?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 91¢ · $834 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$834.15
$4.76
89.9¢ → 90.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+23 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 90¢ | $444.5 | $444.5 | +$0 | 46% 433-503 (936) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 90¢ | $159.75 | $159.75 | +$0 | 51% 2511-2408 (4919) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 90¢ | $103.68 | $103.68 | +$0 | 59% 3534-2412 (5946) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $80.02 | $81.37 | +$1.35 | 52% 746-692 (1438) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $22.62 | $22.62 | +$0 | 41% 534-766 (1300) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $14.28 | $13.57 | -$0.71 | 47% 1521-1691 (3212) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $45.81 | $8.67 | +$4.12 | 48% 2099-2308 (4407) |
Invested
$444.5
Value
$444.5
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
433-503 (936)
Invested
$159.75
Value
$159.75
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
2511-2408 (4919)
Invested
$103.68
Value
$103.68
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3534-2412 (5946)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$80.02
Value
$81.37
PnL
+$1.35
Record
52%
746-692 (1438)
Invested
$22.62
Value
$22.62
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
534-766 (1300)
Invested
$14.28
Value
$13.57
PnL
-$0.71
Record
47%
1521-1691 (3212)
Invested
$45.81
Value
$8.67
PnL
+$4.12
Record
48%
2099-2308 (4407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.