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5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$8.47

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 95.9¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,647

Combined PnL+$4.49

Yes3 traders

Total Value$39.67

Total Shares938

Combined PnL+$3.98

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 95.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$5.06	33% 553-1132 (1685)
VE Venusian	Noavg 95.4¢	$369.2	$368.07	-$1.13	32% 538-1125 (1663)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$230.89	$226.42	-$4.47	46% 440-515 (955)
└ No leg	Noavg 95.1¢	$126.96	$128.03	+$1.07
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.3¢	$103.92	$98.39	-$5.54
MA MadridTime	Noavg 95.3¢	$150.91	$151.13	+$0.22	33% 558-1109 (1667)
LI Limousin	Noavg 95.2¢	$112.18	$112.18	+$0	33% 534-1108 (1642)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$24.05	$24.26	+$0.21	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$9.65	$13.4	+$3.74	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$33.32	$8.92	+$0.33	53% 933-821 (1754)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$1.99	$2.01	+$0.02	36% 209-368 (577)

LightParadox

Invested

$1,919.66

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$5.06

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

Venusian

Invested

$369.2

Value

$368.07

PnL

-$1.13

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$230.89

Value

$226.42

PnL

-$4.47

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

Both legs:

No$126.9695.1¢+$1.07

Yes$103.924.3¢-$5.54

MadridTime

Invested

$150.91

Value

$151.13

PnL

+$0.22

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

Limousin

Invested

$112.18

Value

$112.18

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.05

Value

$24.26

PnL

+$0.21

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.65

Value

$13.4

PnL

+$3.74

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.32

Value

$8.92

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$0.02

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.