Will Türkiye vs. Belgium end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 77¢ · $745 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$744.52
$10.46
76¢ → 76.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 76¢ | $262.09 | $263.82 | +$1.72 | 60% 3439-2335 (5774) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 76¢ | $261.96 | $263.68 | +$1.72 | 16% 64-346 (410) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $91.33 | $97.56 | +$6.23 | 50% 1378-1396 (2774) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $69.54 | $69.99 | +$0.46 | 48% 721-776 (1497) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $49.14 | $49.46 | +$0.32 | 52% 247-230 (477) |
Invested
$262.09
Value
$263.82
PnL
+$1.72
Record
60%
3439-2335 (5774)
Invested
$261.96
Value
$263.68
PnL
+$1.72
Record
16%
64-346 (410)
Invested
$91.33
Value
$97.56
PnL
+$6.23
Record
50%
1378-1396 (2774)
Invested
$69.54
Value
$69.99
PnL
+$0.46
Record
48%
721-776 (1497)
Invested
$49.14
Value
$49.46
PnL
+$0.32
Record
52%
247-230 (477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.