Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Türkiye vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 37¢ · $246 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$246.33
$6.95
34.9¢ → 36.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 34.5¢ | $139.78 | $145.69 | +$5.91 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Yesavg 64¢ | $32.69 | $32.44 | -$0.26 | 61% 928-594 (1522) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $27.75 | $28.14 | +$0.39 | 31% 405-886 (1291) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $14.4 | $14.6 | +$0.2 | 31% 407-907 (1314) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $12.39 | $12.74 | +$0.35 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $12.37 | $12.73 | +$0.35 | 55% 650-530 (1180) |
Invested
$139.78
Value
$145.69
PnL
+$5.91
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$32.69
Value
$32.44
PnL
-$0.26
Record
61%
928-594 (1522)
Invested
$27.75
Value
$28.14
PnL
+$0.39
Record
31%
405-886 (1291)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$14.6
PnL
+$0.2
Record
31%
407-907 (1314)
Invested
$12.39
Value
$12.74
PnL
+$0.35
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
Invested
$12.37
Value
$12.73
PnL
+$0.35
Record
55%
650-530 (1180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.