Sweden vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 73¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 44%
$2.7K
-$229.8
83.1¢ → 72.5¢
-13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 83.1¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$46.54 | 53% 2166-1916 (4082) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 18.7¢ | $577.11 | $565.9 | -$11.21 | 49% 3969-4117 (8086) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 18¢ | $269.64 | $119.84 | -$149.8 | 55% 5404-4376 (9780) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 92¢ | $114.33 | $103.45 | -$10.88 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $42.88 | $58.88 | +$16 | 37% 78-132 (210) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 17.6¢ | $51.21 | $23.29 | -$27.93 | 36% 481-851 (1332) |
 Secondhandvinyl<$100 | Underavg 86¢ | $16.34 | $16.44 | +$0.09 | 76% 257-83 (340) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $3.11 | $3.78 | +$0.67 | 37% 1063-1799 (2862) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100 | Overavg 10¢ | $1 | $0.8 | -$0.2 | 31% 104-232 (336) |
Invested
$1,858.46
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$46.54
Record
53%
2166-1916 (4082)
Invested
$577.11
Value
$565.9
PnL
-$11.21
Record
49%
3969-4117 (8086)
RN1CTRInvested
$269.64
Value
$119.84
PnL
-$149.8
Record
55%
5404-4376 (9780)
Invested
$114.33
Value
$103.45
PnL
-$10.88
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$42.88
Value
$58.88
PnL
+$16
Record
37%
78-132 (210)
Invested
$51.21
Value
$23.29
PnL
-$27.93
Record
36%
481-851 (1332)
Secondhandvinyl<$100Invested
$16.34
Value
$16.44
PnL
+$0.09
Record
76%
257-83 (340)
Invested
$3.11
Value
$3.78
PnL
+$0.67
Record
37%
1063-1799 (2862)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
31%
104-232 (336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.