Sweden vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 83¢ · $917 held · ends Nov 14

Over18¢Under82¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

Total Value

$917.41

Combined PnL

$9.21

Smart Money Entry

82.2¢ → 82.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$720.15

Total Shares867

Combined PnL+$7.17

Over9 traders

Total Value$197.26

Total Shares1,134

Combined PnL+$2.03

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 83¢	$331.98	$333.98	+$2	54% 493-416 (909)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 81.7¢	$308.22	$311.15	+$2.93	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$81.49	$83.88	+$2.4	36% 928-1642 (2570)
HY hydra1248<$100	Underavg 81¢	$72.77	$75.02	+$2.25	75% 187-64 (251)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$52.51	$54.05	+$1.54	37% 957-1658 (2615)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$32.73	$33.69	+$0.96	37% 966-1631 (2597)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$15.49	$13.45	-$2.04	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$4.23	$3.67	-$0.56	42% 991-1360 (2351)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$3.27	$3.37	+$0.1	36% 945-1666 (2611)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$2.66	$2.31	-$0.35	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$1.9	$1.85	-$0.05	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$0.95	$0.98	+$0.03	48% 3205-3505 (6710)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$331.98

Value

$333.98

PnL

+$2

Record

54%

493-416 (909)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$308.22

Value

$311.15

PnL

+$2.93

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$81.49

Value

$83.88

PnL

+$2.4

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

hydra1248<$100

Under

Invested

$72.77

Value

$75.02

PnL

+$2.25

Record

75%

187-64 (251)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.51

Value

$54.05

PnL

+$1.54

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.73

Value

$33.69

PnL

+$0.96

Record

37%

966-1631 (2597)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.49

Value

$13.45

PnL

-$2.04

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.23

Value

$3.67

PnL

-$0.56

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.27

Value

$3.37

PnL

+$0.1

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.66

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$0.35

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.