Sweden vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 62¢ · $53K held · ends Nov 14

Over39¢Under61¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$52.6K

Combined PnL

$1.26

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 61.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$32.8K

Total Shares52,025

Combined PnL+$242.02

Over4 traders

Total Value$19.8K

Total Shares52,919

Combined PnL-$240.76

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 62¢	$29.9K	$30.1K	+$241.1	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Overavg 38¢	$20.0K	$19.7K	-$251.41	4% 5-134 (139)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 62.1¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$5.43	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
0xheavy888	Underavg 62.5¢	$500	$496	-$4	54% 503-422 (925)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 62.3¢	$238.81	$206.82	-$0.99	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$63.8	$71.31	+$7.51	37% 991-1715 (2706)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 61.6¢	$39.13	$39.5	+$0.37	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 34.8¢	$25.97	$28.37	+$2.4	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$8.74	$9.49	+$0.75	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 61¢	$6.41	$6.52	+$0.11	55% 499-401 (900)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$29,896.87

Value

$30.1K

PnL

+$241.1

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Over

Invested

$19,988.25

Value

$19.7K

PnL

-$251.41

Record

5-134 (139)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,894.24

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$5.43

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$496

PnL

-$4

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$238.81

Value

$206.82

PnL

-$0.99

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.8

Value

$71.31

PnL

+$7.51

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$39.13

Value

$39.5

PnL

+$0.37

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.97

Value

$28.37

PnL

+$2.4

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.74

Value

$9.49

PnL

+$0.75

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$6.41

Value

$6.52

PnL

+$0.11

Record

55%

499-401 (900)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.