Sweden vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 97¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Over97¢Under3¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$20.78

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 96.5¢

+19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,606

Combined PnL+$61.9

Under6 traders

Total Value$778.75

Total Shares4,009

Combined PnL-$41.13

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87	Overavg 81.4¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$61.96	62% 95-59 (154)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 18.2¢	$817.56	$743.01	+$1.46	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
└ Under leg	Underavg 18.2¢	$416.44	$410.83	-$2.59
└ Over leg	Overavg 81¢	$328.12	$332.17	+$4.05
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 18.9¢	$454.54	$446.04	-$8.5	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 19¢	$211.91	$206.34	-$5.58	47% 936-1036 (1972)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 82¢	$120.16	$82.79	-$3.37	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
└ Over leg	Overavg 82¢	$61.5	$61.88	+$0.38
└ Under leg	Underavg 18.4¢	$21.94	$20.91	-$3.75
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$81.88	$79.72	-$2.16	42% 1030-1415 (2445)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 18.4¢	$23.14	$22.05	-$1.09	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$16	$16.5	+$0.5	37% 78-132 (210)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$32.4	$8.1	-$24.3	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.05	-$0.05	48% 2157-2304 (4461)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 83¢	$1	$0.99	-$0.01	31% 104-232 (336)

Zzzz87

Over

Invested

$4,558.04

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$61.96

Record

62%

95-59 (154)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$817.56

Value

$743.01

PnL

+$1.46

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

Both legs:

Under$416.4418.2¢-$2.59

Over$328.1281¢+$4.05

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$454.54

Value

$446.04

PnL

-$8.5

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$211.91

Value

$206.34

PnL

-$5.58

Record

47%

936-1036 (1972)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$120.16

Value

$82.79

PnL

-$3.37

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Both legs:

Over$61.582¢+$0.38

Under$21.9418.4¢-$3.75

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$81.88

Value

$79.72

PnL

-$2.16

Record

42%

1030-1415 (2445)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.14

Value

$22.05

PnL

-$1.09

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

37%

78-132 (210)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.4

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$24.3

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2157-2304 (4461)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

31%

104-232 (336)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.