Will Sweden win on 2026-11-14?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 65¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$17.24

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 64.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,954

Combined PnL-$6.69

No6 traders

Total Value$581.79

Total Shares1,586

Combined PnL+$23.93

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Yesavg 64.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$6.74	51% 499-470 (969)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 35.3¢	$456.29	$459.99	+$3.7	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 35.3¢	$78.12	$55.91	+$20.21	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$27.4	$27.79	+$0.39	36% 319-557 (876)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 36.2¢	$22.47	$22.05	-$0.43	43% 920-1244 (2164)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 35.5¢	$17.02	$13.32	+$0.13	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$2.81	$2.73	-$0.08	32% 92-195 (287)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$1.7	$1.76	+$0.05	56% 426-340 (766)

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$1,265.13

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$6.74

Record

51%

499-470 (969)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$456.29

Value

$459.99

PnL

+$3.7

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$78.12

Value

$55.91

PnL

+$20.21

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$27.4

Value

$27.79

PnL

+$0.39

Record

36%

319-557 (876)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$22.47

Value

$22.05

PnL

-$0.43

Record

43%

920-1244 (2164)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$17.02

Value

$13.32

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

OddstormCTR<$100

Invested

$2.81

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.08

Record

32%

92-195 (287)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0.05

Record

56%

426-340 (766)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.