Spread: Sweden (-1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bosnia and Herzegovina (50%) · Bosnia and Herzegovina at 59¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Sweden42¢Bosnia and Herzegovina58¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Consensus Traders

Bosnia and Herzegovina 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$16.54

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 58.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBosnia and Herzegovina at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bosnia and Herzegovina

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Sweden42%

Bosnia and Herzegovina59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bosnia and Herzegovina4 traders

Total Value$582.29

Total Shares946

Combined PnL+$15.41

Sweden4 traders

Total Value$348.28

Total Shares819

Combined PnL+$1.13

Bosnia and Herzegovina — 50%Sweden — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Bosnia and Herzegovina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSweden 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Sweden 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 57.8¢	$472.12	$485.49	+$13.37	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
nigiri99CTR	Swedenavg 42¢	$296.72	$292.99	-$3.73	51% 568-535 (1103)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 59.8¢	$266.89	$207.81	-$2.94	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
└ Bosnia and Herzegovina leg	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 59.8¢	$149.36	$148.56	-$0.8
└ Sweden leg	Swedenavg 41¢	$59.98	$59.25	-$2.14
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 58.5¢	$63.27	$64.36	+$1.09	55% 474-384 (858)
38 38791873984189CTR	Swedenavg 40¢	$190.9	$45.23	+$4.98	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
GH ghorrock<$100	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 57¢	$28.69	$29.45	+$0.75	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Swedenavg 41¢	$9.51	$9.39	-$0.12	50% 73-72 (145)
DV dv-pm<$100	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.99	+$0.19	44% 31-39 (70)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Swedenavg 40¢	$0.67	$0.67	-$0	49% 3867-4029 (7896)

GoalLineGhost

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Invested

$472.12

Value

$485.49

PnL

+$13.37

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

nigiri99CTR

Sweden

Invested

$296.72

Value

$292.99

PnL

-$3.73

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Invested

$266.89

Value

$207.81

PnL

-$2.94

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

Both legs:

Bosnia and Herzegovina$149.3659.8¢-$0.8

Sweden$59.9841¢-$2.14

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Invested

$63.27

Value

$64.36

PnL

+$1.09

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

38791873984189CTR

Sweden

Invested

$190.9

Value

$45.23

PnL

+$4.98

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

ghorrock<$100

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Invested

$28.69

Value

$29.45

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Sweden

Invested

$9.51

Value

$9.39

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

73-72 (145)

dv-pm<$100

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.99

PnL

+$0.19

Record

44%

31-39 (70)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Sweden

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

Research grade

NeutralBosnia and Herzegovina at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bosnia and Herzegovina

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Bosnia and Herzegovina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSweden 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Sweden 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bosnia and Herzegovina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.