Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the market favors Sweden (96%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bosnia and Herzegovina (100%) · Bosnia and Herzegovina at 4.2¢ · $651 held · ended Nov 14

Bosnia and Herzegovina4¢Sweden96¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Consensus Traders

Bosnia and Herzegovina 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$651.18

Combined PnL

$123.06

Smart Money Entry

3.1¢ → 4.2¢

+33% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidBosnia and Herzegovina at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bosnia and Herzegovina

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Sweden 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bosnia and Herzegovina4%

Sweden96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bosnia and Herzegovina8 traders

Total Value$481.69

Total Shares11,521

Combined PnL+$123.06

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Bosnia and Herzegovina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBosnia and Herzegovina 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Bosnia and Herzegovina 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 3.1¢	$270.08	$365.6	+$95.52	48% 301-330 (631)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 3¢	$134.12	$169.49	+$35.37	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
└ Bosnia and Herzegovina leg	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 3¢	$84.87	$120.23	+$35.36
└ Sweden leg	Swedenavg 95.7¢	$49.25	$49.26	+$0.01
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 3¢	$52.89	$70.53	+$17.63	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 3.7¢	$12.06	$16.5	+$4.44	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 3.6¢	$11.67	$12.97	+$1.3	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 3.1¢	$17.39	$10.94	+$3.85	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 4¢	$2	$2.1	+$0.1	36% 975-1701 (2676)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 3.5¢	$1.84	$2.1	+$0.26	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Bosnia and Herzegovinaavg 4.4¢	$1	$0.95	-$0.05	31% 104-232 (336)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Invested

$270.08

Value

$365.6

PnL

+$95.52

Record

48%

301-330 (631)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Invested

$134.12

Value

$169.49

PnL

+$35.37

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

Both legs:

Bosnia and Herzegovina$84.873¢+$35.36

Sweden$49.2595.7¢+$0.01

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Invested

$52.89

Value

$70.53

PnL

+$17.63

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Invested

$12.06

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$4.44

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Invested

$11.67

Value

$12.97

PnL

+$1.3

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Invested

$17.39

Value

$10.94

PnL

+$3.85

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

LimousinCTR<$100

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Invested

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Invested

$1.84

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Invested

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

31%

104-232 (336)

Research grade

AvoidBosnia and Herzegovina at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bosnia and Herzegovina

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Sweden 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Bosnia and Herzegovina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBosnia and Herzegovina 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Bosnia and Herzegovina 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bosnia and Herzegovina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.4%

4.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1753.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

1853.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.