Sweden vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 100¢ · $685 held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$684.95

Combined PnL

-$36.45

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 100¢

+118% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$313.06

Total Shares653

Combined PnL-$27.17

Under5 traders

Total Value$314.66

Total Shares495

Combined PnL-$9.28

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 44.7¢	$319.93	$296.2	-$23.73	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
LO lonmi2511CTR	Underavg 56¢	$160.1	$168.62	+$8.52	59% 717-491 (1208)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 57.1¢	$304.52	$115.19	-$17.39	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 59¢	$55.54	$57.23	+$1.68	55% 502-403 (905)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38¢	$27.36	$29.52	+$2.16
└ Under leg	Underavg 59¢	$28.18	$27.71	-$0.48
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Underavg 61¢	$15.25	$14.5	-$0.75	45% 34-41 (75)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$10.01	$10.45	+$0.44	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	Overavg 41¢	$3.89	$9.48	+$5.59	21% 60-224 (284)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609<$100	Overavg 99¢	$15.41	$6.38	-$9.03	77% 24-7 (31)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$6	$5.9	-$0.1	48% 2164-2307 (4471)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 41¢	$1	$1	+$0	31% 104-232 (336)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$319.93

Value

$296.2

PnL

-$23.73

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

lonmi2511CTR

Under

Invested

$160.1

Value

$168.62

PnL

+$8.52

Record

59%

717-491 (1208)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$304.52

Value

$115.19

PnL

-$17.39

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$55.54

Value

$57.23

PnL

+$1.68

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

Both legs:

Invested

$15.25

Value

$14.5

PnL

-$0.75

Record

45%

34-41 (75)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.01

Value

$10.45

PnL

+$0.44

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

Over

Invested

$3.89

Value

$9.48

PnL

+$5.59

Record

21%

60-224 (284)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609<$100

Over

Invested

$15.41

Value

$6.38

PnL

-$9.03

Record

77%

24-7 (31)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

104-232 (336)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.