Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$2.2K
$7.71
90.7¢ → 89.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 89¢ | $861.92 | $890.97 | +$29.05 | 37% 1003-1721 (2724) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 92¢ | $403.47 | $388.12 | -$15.35 | 47% 936-1037 (1973) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 92¢ | $346.5 | $350 | +$3.5 | 59% 3775-2600 (6375) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 92¢ | $322 | $309.75 | -$12.25 | 37% 367-618 (985) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 11¢ | $114.56 | $109.8 | -$4.76 | 49% 3969-4117 (8086) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.1¢ | $82.3 | $85.63 | +$3.33 | 55% 5404-4376 (9780) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $45.48 | $43.75 | -$1.73 | 53% 1815-1613 (3428) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $49.86 | $11.46 | +$6.6 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $5.41 | $4.73 | -$0.68 | 46% 2762-3273 (6035) |
Invested
$861.92
Value
$890.97
PnL
+$29.05
Record
37%
1003-1721 (2724)
Invested
$403.47
Value
$388.12
PnL
-$15.35
Record
47%
936-1037 (1973)
Invested
$346.5
Value
$350
PnL
+$3.5
Record
59%
3775-2600 (6375)
Invested
$322
Value
$309.75
PnL
-$12.25
Record
37%
367-618 (985)
Invested
$114.56
Value
$109.8
PnL
-$4.76
Record
49%
3969-4117 (8086)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$82.3
Value
$85.63
PnL
+$3.33
Record
55%
5404-4376 (9780)
Invested
$45.48
Value
$43.75
PnL
-$1.73
Record
53%
1815-1613 (3428)
Invested
$49.86
Value
$11.46
PnL
+$6.6
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$5.41
Value
$4.73
PnL
-$0.68
Record
46%
2762-3273 (6035)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.